Today, 78 years after the end of World War II, historians continue to argue on the effectiveness of the massive bombings of Cologne, Dresden and other cities in influencing the Nazi Germany’s military power and population morale.
In his Memoirs of the Second World War, Winston Churchill noted that the psychological impact of the bombings notwithstanding, the British still preferred to target purely military targets. In particular, describing the spring of 1945 hostilities on the Western Front, he wrote: «Continuing raids by our heavy bombers had reduced the German oil output to a critical point, ruined many of dieir airfields, and so heavily damaged their factories and transportation system as to bring them almost to a standstill.» Although, he was most likely referring not to oil that at the time, Germany received from Romania and Hungary, but rather, to its synthetic fuel production plants.
During the war, the Nazis themselves tried to destroy British industrial enterprises and the USSR energy infrastructure, including on the eve of the Battle of Kursk. Later they planned to expand the devastating air strikes even further east, much in the same way Putin’s Russia is now trying to damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure.
Meanwhile, the historians who believe that the destruction of German cities and attempts to intimidate its civilian population were uncalled for, seem to forget the events of 86 years ago, namely of April 26, 1937, when the Nazi ‘s Condor legion, a volunteer unit of the German Luftwaffe, insidiously and brutally destroyed the practically defenseless Spanish city of Guernica. The town of about 6,000 inhabitants, many of whom had gathered for a traditional market day, was ruthlessly bombed for two and a half hours, while those trying to flee were shot by the pilots with machine guns, killing and wounding about 1600 people total. Thus, the shocked world observed what the so-called total war primarily targeting civilians really looked like.
The tragedy, immortalized in the world-famous Pablo Picasso painting, became the first harbinger of the terrible mass civilian sufferings of WWII.
Clearly, the devastating 1944-1945 bombings of German cities would not have happened had they not been preceded by the barbaric air strikes on Guernica, Warsaw, Rotterdam, London, Odesa, Coventry, Birmingham and other European cities.
Future historians will argue about the extent to which the massive air strikes of the Israeli Armed Forces today helped destroy the Hamas militant network.
Future historians will argue about the extent to which the massive air strikes of the Israeli Armed Forces today helped destroy the Hamas militant network.
Likewise, future historians will argue on the extent to which today’s Israeli Armed Forces massive air strikes have helped destroy the Hamas militant network in the Gaza Strip. And, in the fervor of the academic discussion, they too may forget to invoke that the horrendous Saturday morning, October 7, 2023 attack on Israel also targeted the civilian population.
Naturally, Israel couldn’t have left the attack unanswered. At the same time, the aggression has raised a host of hard questions still awaiting answers on how adequate the actions of the Israeli intelligence, army and public authorities had been and why. Many Israelis may be asking, for instance, why while the first Prime Minister David Ben-Gurion had been able to predict the attack of neighboring Arab countries on Israel immediately after its 1948 declaration of independence, the current government was not. Or where were Israel’s famous intelligence agents, akin Eli Cohen, the protagonist of the captivating 2019 The Spy series, who for three years before the Six-Day War, working undercover, provided Israel with the top-notch data on Syria’s political and military plans and preparations?
How did it happen that the entire government machine, equipped with state-of-the-art capabilities, hardly noticed the 2023 attack preparations?
And how did it happen that the entire government apparatus, equipped with the state-of-the-art capabilities, missed the 2023 attack preparations? Was it not a consequence of deep internal problems and of, at the same time, a gradual loss of vigilance by the society at large? Also, how could the Hamas aggression catch by surprise the intelligence services of Western countries? And most importantly, is the Palestinian issue in a broader sense a result of a deep-rooted discontent and perhaps, even an inferiority complex in the Arab world, and does it have any real prospects for resolution in the foreseeable future?
In Ukraine, it's been 615 days since the onset of the full-scale invasion by the Russian Federation.
For now, however, Israel has wisely decided to postpone the thorough investigation until the postwar times. In doing so, they apparently followed both their own and other nations’ experiences of handling internal challenges as a result of military setbacks. Britain would be one of many such examples, having lost about 15 thousand men in Crete before losing the island in May 1941. Later, on December 10, 1941, in Britain’s naval battle against Japan in the South China Sea, the former’s loss of the Prince of Wales and Ripals battleships caused a wave of indignation and devastating criticism at home.
However, the particularly shameful defeat that virtually predetermined the collapse of British rule in Southeast Asia was its surrender of Singapore on February 15, 1942. And while the British heatedly debated those crucial military failures, seeking answers to those numerous painful questions, they nevertheless agreed to investigate, in particular, the causes of the Singapore disaster, only after the war ended.
Meanwhile, both historic and current events, over and over, raise another critical issue that has come to the fore in recent years — that of ensuring an adequate level of national resilience, that is, the ability of a nation to withstand both expected and unforeseen external influences and destructive interventions, while successfully overcoming any internal crises.
Should we have closed production cycles of important industrial products on our own territory, and if so, of which ones?
This question that will continue to arise for many nations more and more often now and in different ways is how to take advantage of globalization and at the same time, meet its challenges? Should we all have closed production cycles of the critical industrial products on their own territory, and if so, of which ones? How many experienced engineers and skilled workers would that require? What would be the role of education, science and innovation in all that? Is it necessary to have a sufficient supply of medicines and of what kinds? What is a true food security, how can it be achieved, and how is it related to geopolitics?
In addition, these days, different nations are increasingly thinking about the questions directly related to their warfare capabilities, such as: what kind of armed forces and weapons are needed to repel a potential aggressor; what reserves and resources should be available for that purpose; how can those be produced, properly stored and effectively used in a free-market environment; and is it really true that even today, just as during the ancient Greco-Persian wars, the attitudes of a society, the morale of its army and the leader’s personal virtues still make a key difference. After all, not accidentally do people still remember who refused to give up «earth and water» to Persia’s King Xerxes, how the 300 Spartans died in battle in a narrow gorge near Thermopylae, and what words are engraved on the monument in their honor.
Of course, our own Ukrainian experience will be re-examined many times over by both military experts and future civilian historians. Perhaps, both the former and the latter will eventually find the main factors of our victories, just as of our failures, especially since everything truly definitive manifests itself against the temporary and the secondary only with the passage of time.
The Kremlin clique made a serious mistake when planning the attack on our country.
However, it is already obvious that the Kremlin clique made a serious mistake when planning the attack on our country. As we all remember, starting in October-November 2021, Russia’s public information domain started circulating claims that only a «relatively small number of people» with «NATO and American education» supported the Kyiv authorities. Furthermore, Russia media insisted that Ukraine’s junior and mid-level officers weren’t ready «to fight to the end for the Kyiv rulers.»Thus, the widespread Russian nostalgia for the Soviet past was mechanically extrapolated to Ukraine, whose society was seen as practically Russia’s identical twin, allegedly ready for reunification with it. Accordingly, Russia developed an array of instructional materials on how to undermine the morale of our Armed Forces, spread disbelief in our ability to resist Russian troops and entice Ukrainian servicemen with material and other incentives to switch sides.
The enemies made a completely false conclusion that our military was disloyal, did not trust the state leadership and would not defend the homeland.
The materials also referred to the alleged conflict and distrust between «the nationalist armed groups that are a forceful tool of the Kyiv authorities» and the regular AFU units. The Russian Federation promoted the idea that «radical nationalism is a project of forces that have nothing to do with the Ukrainian people.» All in all, they made a completely false conclusion that the Ukrainian military was disloyal, did not trust the state leadership, would not defend the homeland, and on the contrary, in the event of an armed conflict, would immediately join the enemy’s side. Perhaps, military history knows few examples of a more grossly flawed assessment of a potential enemy’s morale.
The Nazis, however, were also mistaken, believing that by constantly bombing London and other UK cities, they would ultimately break the spirit of the British and destroy their will to resist — in the autumn of 1940, the continuous bombing of the capital lasted for 57 nights. Later it spread to other parts of the country, causing terrible destruction. As Churchill recalled: «During the last week of November and the beginning of December the weight of the attack shifted to the ports. Bristol, Southampton, and above all Liverpool, were heavily bombed. Later on Plymouth, Sheffield, Manchester, Leeds, Glasgow, and other munitions centres passed through the fire undaunted.» However, the result was not the one the Nazis anticipated: «It did not matter where the blow struck, the nation was as sound as the sea is salt,» the British prime minister concluded.
The historical excursions illustrate the major significance of an ongoing comprehensive study of those aspects of our national existence that play a crucial role in strengthening our national framework. And while it’s true that there can be no truly invincible national frameworks, the pursuit thereof for the sake of genuine security is clearly a natural process inherent in almost every national entity.
So, a truly professional, balanced and in-depth discussion about national resilience is more than relevant for Ukraine today, especially in the context of the war with Putin’s Russia, when the ability to effectively counteract a powerful enemy is our foremost priority. That is, we must know and skillfully apply the true art of war, so aptly described by the famous Chinese strategist and military thinker Sun Tzu ages ago: «The conditions of the art of war are as follows: first, calculations; second, the amount of resources; third, the number of soldiers; fourth, the balance of power; and fifth, the ability to win.»
by Oleh Bielokolos, Director of the Center for National Resilience Studies